The first game of Week 3 kicks off tonight with the Texans visiting the Patriots.  But unless you’ve avoided all sports talk for the last 4 days, you know Week 3 really began on Monday, when the countless talking heads began making wild speculations about teams that are either locks to win the Super Bowl or destined to finish 0-16.  There are currently seven teams that are 2-0 (Patriots, Broncos, Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Giants, Eagles and Vikings) and eight teams that are 0-2 (Dolphins, Bills, Browns, Colts, Jaguars, [Washington], Bears and Saints).

Of the 2-0 teams, you can’t really be surprised by the Broncos, Steelers, Eagles or even the Patriots.  The Broncos defense looks as nasty as it did in last year’s Super Bowl, with their edge rushers and DBs leading the charge.  It also helps when you can decapitate the opposing quarterback three or four times a game with zero repercussions, but we’ll just let that slide.  The Steelers’ offense looks unstoppable with the perennially hungover and out of shape (looking) Big Ben throwing to Antonio Brown, Sammie Coates, Eli Rogers, DeAngelo Williams and basically anyone with two hands.  DeAngelo Williams (33 years old) looks like Eddie George at Ohio State, which I’m sure has nothing to do with performance enhancing drugs.  The Eagles had the benefit of playing the Browns (abysmal) and the Bears (sad and abysmal) in the first two weeks, so no surprise there.  Lastly, the fucking Patriots, who everyone knows are going 4-0 until TB12 comes back looked like the well oiled machine of a cutoff sweatshirt wearing psychopath.

Similarly on the depressing side of the coin, the 0-2 teams shouldn’t surprise anyone – especially the Browns, Bears, Jaguars, and Bills.  The Browns are…well…the Browns. The Bears were miserable in 2015 and did little to get better except get rid of Forte, Martellus Bennett and 4-time Pro Bowler and future HOF LB Shea McClellin.  The Jaguars are celebrating their 8th year in a row of being the best fantasy team in the league that goes 3-13 and the Bills thought that reuniting the Ryan brothers would do more than just decimate every all-you-can-eat buffet in Buffalo – shame on them.

Other than a few surprises here and there – e.g., the Seahawks’ offense shitting the bed and the Packers still not really understanding how to call a play – it’s pretty much status quo.  So what does that mean for the Week 3 picks? Here’s who I’ve got:

Texans @ Patriots (-1)  – Thursday, 9/22 – 8:25 PM ET
My pick: Patriots
Why: It’s the Patriots.  I don’t care if they start Teddy Bruschi at QB – they’re tough at home.  Houston’s defense has looked incredibly solid and even Brock Osweiler can’t screw up how good DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller have been.  But ultimately, until Belichick shows me he hasn’t made a deal with the Devil, I’m picking them to win at home giving only one point.

Cardinals @ Bills (+4) – Sunday, 9/25 – 1:00 PM ET
My Pick: Bills
Why: Feels like this is a must win for the Bills.  The Bills stink and I think Arizona is a top 5 team, but that’s just because I’m incredibly skewed by recency bias and Arizona destroying the Buccaneers by 33 last week.  I like the home dog getting 4 points – that’s about it.

[Washington] @ Giants (-4.5) – Sunday, 9/25 – 1:00 PM ET
My Pick: Giants
Why: Washington has looked terrible and the story this week is that Josh Norman is going to shadow Odell Beckham Jr. all game.  It’s a bold move to use your overpaid cover-2 corner to shadow one of the most difficult to cover WRs in the league… real bold.  I think the Giants go up early and never look back.

49ers @ Seahawks (-9) – Sunday, 9/25 – 4:05 PM ET
My Pick: Seahawks
Why: Nine points seems preposterous for a team that didn’t score an offensive touchdown last week against the Rams, which means Vegas is trying to screw everyone.  I’m sure they know that San Francisco is terrible this year and to never underestimate the 12th man!!!

Bears @ Cowboys (-7) – Sunday, 9/25 – 8:30 PM ET
My Pick: Cowboys
Why: The Bears are starting Brian Hoyer and a handful of second string defensive players that wouldn’t make the Browns roster.  The Cowboys will definitely find a way to screw this up, but I’m still picking ZEKE to run wild in what should be an absolutely intolerable game to watch.

Full disclosure – I am horrible at gambling so I’d fade these picks REAL hard.